Why did TimeGPT produce this forecast?SHAP starts from a reference forecast and shows how much each input moves the prediction up or down.
+2 means two additional units in the model’s forecast.
Retail-demand example
A store uses its price, promotion plan, and temperature forecast to predict demand for the next 14 days.Create the example data
Create the example data
Make and explain the forecast
Turn onfeature_contributions when you call forecast():
The frame always has the ID and time columns,
TimeGPT, one column per
feature in the order they were sent, and base_value last.
Read the result
For January 6:- The explanation starts at 91.85 units.
- Price adds 0.21 units.
- The planned promotion adds 0.55 units.
- Temperature subtracts 0.59 units.
- Together, they produce the 92.01-unit forecast after rounding.

The left panel shows the 14-day forecast. The right panel explains the first promotion day. Results were generated with TimeGPT 2.1.
Find the biggest contributors
To summarize the entire forecast horizon, calculate the average absolute contribution:SHAP explains how TimeGPT combined the available inputs for this forecast. Use
it to investigate surprising predictions, communicate forecasts, and decide
where to look next.